National Institute of Animal Health (NIAH)

Topics in Animal Health Research 2011

28. Risk factors for local spread of foot-and-mouth disease, 2010 epidemic in Japan


  To provide a basis for effective foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) prevention measures, this study analyzed factors associated with local spread of FMD using data from the 2010 FMD epidemic in Japan. Thirty-eight local clusters within a 500-m radius from infected source farms were selected. More neighboring farms were infected in a short time in clusters with pig source farms than in clusters with cattle source farms. No significant difference was found in the influence of distance and wind on local spread between infected and non-infected neighboring farms. Large pig farms posed a greater risk of inducing local spread; the odds ratio for small cattle farms was 16.73. Middle and large cattle farms had a risk of infection greater than that for small cattle farms, with odds ratios of 15.65 and 25.52, respectively. These results are useful for understanding the features of local spread and prioritizing farms for control measures.
(Viral Disease and Epidemiology Research Division)


Hayama Y. et al (2012) Res. Vet. Sci. 93:631-635