When foot-and-mouth-disease (FMD) was identified in Miyazaki prefecture in March 2000, an intensive serological and clinical survey was conducted in the areas surrounding the index herd. To evaluate the survey, we estimated the effectiveness of the survey through a stochastic model. The estimated herd-level sensitivity, defined as the probability of detecting at least one positive animal in a herd containing at least one infected animal, averaged over 85%. The estimated herd-level specificity, defined as the probability of finding no positive animal in a non-infected herd, was 98.6%. The calculated probability that more than one infected herd was overlooked was below 10.3% regardless of the assumed variation of the FMD transmissibility. Taking into account the large number of herds involved and the limited time allowed for conducting the survey, we concluded that the survey contributed significantly to the early eradication of FMD in Miyazaki prefecture.
(Applied Epidemiology Section, Department of Epidemiology TEL +81-29-838-7769)
References:
Tsutsui et al. (2003) Prev. Vet. Med. 61:45-58.
