An outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) occurred in Japan in 2010. Because of the high density of cattle and pigs in the affected area, the disease spread rapidly and extensively. The epidemic lasted 3 months, during which 292 farms were infected and almost 290,000 animals were culled. Because the susceptibility and transmissibility of FMD differ between animal species, it is important to consider the characteristics of an epidemic area, such as farm density and animal species, to determine the transmission risk of the disease. In this study, to provide a basis for the development of preparedness for future outbreaks of FMD, the transmission risk of FMD in Japan was evaluated by using a mathematical model for the spread of FMD. Then, the transmission risk in each area was visualized as a geographic risk map that identified high-risk areas for FMD transmission. The risk map demonstrated the spatial heterogeneity of transmission risk in the country and identified risk areas with higher possibility of disease spread. These results suggest that it is important to prepare for the smooth and efficient implementation of control measures against FMD outbreaks, particularly in high-risk areas.
(Viral Disease and Epidemiology Research Division)
J. Vet. Med. Sci. http://doi.org/10.1292/jvms.14-0461